POLITICS AND ARROGANCE — UNDERSTANDING ISRAEL’S OCTOBER 7 INTELLIGENCE FAILURE
Mehul Srivastava broke some major news on last Friday in the Financial Times with this article, Israeli intelligence ‘dismissed’ detailed warning of Hamas raid. When an outfit like the Financial Times green lights an explosive article savaging Israel’s massive intelligence failure on October 7, you have to step back and ask a few of questions. Who does this benefit? Who does this hurt? And, why now? This article was written with an undisclosed purpose in mind.
Here are the salient passages:
A senior Israeli military intelligence officer dismissed a detailed warning predicting Hamas’s raid of October 7, calling it an “imaginary scenario”, said two people familiar with the discussions. Sentries on Israel’s border with Gaza, many of them female soldiers who watch and analyse a constant feed of video and other data gathered near the electronic fence surrounding the enclave, sent a detailed report weeks before the attack to the highest-ranking intelligence officer in the southern command, both people said. . . .
“This is an imaginary scenario,” the high-ranking intelligence officer replied, according to a description of the communications shared with the Financial Times. No action was taken, the person said. KAN, Israel’s public broadcaster, reported late on Thursday details of a similar warning sent by low-ranking soldiers to their seniors. KAN added that the warning included the possibility of an aircraft being downed, and of Hamas raising its flags over Israeli territory. . . .
The two people familiar with the communications told the FT that discussions within the intelligence community about the failure to act on the memo echoed those after the intelligence failures preceding the 1973 war. Both said the warnings were dismissed not just because they came from lower-ranking soldiers, but because they ran up against the Israeli government’s confidence that it had contained Hamas through a punishing blockade, by bombing its military capabilities, and using aid and money as a mean to placate the Palestinian militant group.
I think this rings true. It is the worst of “intelligence failures” because the analysts accurately and correctly reported the warning signs and their analysis was ignored. The reaction of the “high-ranking intelligence official” who dismissed the reports and analysis as an “imaginary scenario” is not out of character for Senior Israeli intelligence personnel. Arrogance and hubris is their M. O.
What is not described (at least, not yet) is whether or not Bibi Netanyahu was briefed on these warnings. If he was briefed and sided with the high-ranking official then this news report indicates that the knives are out for Bibi and his government. If Bibi was not briefed then I believe this leak reflects genuine anger among the lower ranks of Mossad and Unit 8200 and they are wanting to make sure the blame falls on the leadership of those two outfits. If that is the case it may indicate that Bibi is behind the effort and intends to pin the blame on the intelligence officials. All of this means that an ugly, bureaucratic battle is brewing in Israel’s intelligence community.
Judge Napolitano and I discussed this and other items today. Enjoy.